The Moderate Voice - Latest Comments in Election Poll Shocker: Dems may carry California in Fall

Re: Election Poll Shocker: Dems may carry California in Fall

jchem — Sat, 24 May 2008 17:27:08 -0000

"Obama, the Illinois senator who has inched close to his party’s nomination, would defeat McCain by seven points if the election were held today. New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, whose fortunes have faltered since her Feb. 5 drubbing of Obama in California, would eke out only a three-point victory, the poll found."

McCain would only lose to Obama by 7 points and Clinton by 3? Although I too agree that this poll might just be a bit unnecessary, I do find the margins of victory to actually be much closer than what I would have predicted. Is a 7 point lead really that hard to overcome? Granted, the poll points out that if the elections were held today, these would be the numbers. I honestly can't imagine even the most hardcore of Hillary supporters in California to jump ship for McCain.

Re: Election Poll Shocker: Dems may carry California in Fall

superdestroyer — Sat, 24 May 2008 14:19:35 -0000

McCAin has zero chance of winning in Californai and the Republicans will not spend one dollar of their limited public fiancing funds in California.

In the long run, national politics will resemble California politics: A single party state where there are few competative elections because the districts are draw to protect incumbents.

Re: Election Poll Shocker: Dems may carry California in Fall

StockBoySF — Sat, 24 May 2008 13:55:31 -0000

I think it's a no-brainer that CA will go Dem in the Fall.

But given that McCain is next door in AZ and he probably does well with the defense industry and military establishment here I think the poll was probably necessary. I'd hate to wake up on Jan. 21 to find out that McCain was inaugurated the day before because someone (the Dems) took CA for granted.

Besides, as you pointed out, just because Hill won CA doesn't mean that Obama won't win it. So this poll is just a double-check.

I see the poll results as one way to convince the superdelegates that Obama is electable. I mean CA is a big prize and if there's a poll that shows Obama will beat McCain by a wider margin in CA then Hill, then it lessens Hill's argument that she is more electable.

So yeah, on one hand the poll is unnecessary because everyone knows (assumes) that CA will go Dem, but on the other hand it's nice to have evidence (if only from one poll) that CA is still leaning Dem.

BTW: I love the title of the post and it's sarcastic tone. It's right on but I still like the reality check of having an actual poll to back up my own sarcasm on this.