The Moderate Voice - Latest Comments in New Polls Show Clinton Obama Texas Ohio Primary Showdowns Are Nail Biters

Re: New Polls Show Clinton Obama Texas Ohio Primary Showdowns Are Nail Biters

StockBoySF — Sun, 02 Mar 2008 20:50:56 -0000

Thanks, Elrod! I think that's the way it should be.

I ran the numbers and if Hillary does manage to get the FL and MI delegate seated (based on the percentage of the vote she received, not districts won) she would still be 60 delegates behind Obama. And since Obama was not on the MI ballot I gave him zero delegates for purposes of my exercise.

I wonder if the super delegates will seat FL and MI delegates so their votes can count. Even though overall it doesn't help Hillary's position. And I wonder what Obama's reaction would be.

Re: New Polls Show Clinton Obama Texas Ohio Primary Showdowns Are Nail Biters

elrod — Sun, 02 Mar 2008 16:30:45 -0000

Hillary may want to continue on after small victories in OH and TX but the superdelegates won't let her. Bill Richardson said today on Face the Nation that he will back whoever is leading among delegates after March 4. That will be Obama. And Richardson is not alone. I've heard Sen. Stabenow and Gov. Granholm say this in Michigan too. Party leaders are ready to consolidate behind a nominee. This isn't about momentum anymore. It's about math. Without a huge victory the superdelegates will turn a trickle to Obama to a flood. Hillary will have no choice but to back out.

Re: New Polls Show Clinton Obama Texas Ohio Primary Showdowns Are Nail Biters

StockBoySF — Sun, 02 Mar 2008 01:27:34 -0000

Elrod, yeah I agree with you- Hillary should bow out if she doesn't win by 10 pts. in both OH and TX.

But let's say she got 51% in both. Do you think Hillary will use this as proof that her trend is upward, she's the comeback kid and plow onward to PA? In other words we may think HIllary needs a 10 pt. win, but given Hillary's drive to win the nomination, do you think Hillary will see the "necessary" wins in the same terms?

Re: New Polls Show Clinton Obama Texas Ohio Primary Showdowns Are Nail Biters

elrod — Sun, 02 Mar 2008 00:26:31 -0000

Good round-up, Joe. The big races are, indeed, close. But close won't work for Hillary Clinton. Her camp is left to hoping for a small victory in OH, TX or both and then declaring a new momentum for her candidacy. But I don't see anybody outside her core of supporters buying it. She claimed she won big on Super Tuesday because she won the "big states" but once the media noticed that Obama actually won more delegates that day and that the rest of the month looked perilous for Clinton, then the media narrative shifted against Clinton. I still remember Cokie Roberts breathlessly declaring on NPR that Clinton had scored some big Super Tuesday win. And I remember thinking, "Ummm, no she didn't. She was supposed to knock him out. And now she has a month of hostile states. She's in big trouble."

It's important to be on guard against campaign spin. Obama is in the driver's seat, not because of national polls but because of his pledged delegate lead of 159 delegates. His superdelegate deficit has been cut in half since Super Tuesday and I suspect that if he avoids a big loss on Tuesday, the 3-a-day trickle of superdelegates to Obama will become a flood. All I hope is that Hillary Clinton goes out gracefully and doesn't succomb to voices insisting that she can needle superdelegates or FL and MI to pull off some coup at the convention. The Democratic Party cannot survive that. Hillary Clinton must either win by 10 points in both OH and TX or bow out on March 5. It's that simple.